Canada Faces a Major Mortgage Renewal Wave in 2025 and 2026: Here’s What to Expect

✳️ Overview

Nearly 60% of Canadian mortgages will renew between 2025 and 2026 — one of the largest renewal waves in recent years. According to the Bank of Canada (Staff Analytical Note 2025-21), most borrowers will see moderate changes in monthly payments, depending on their mortgage type and when they originally locked in their rate.

📊 1️⃣ What the Bank of Canada Projects

Compared to December 2024 payments:

Renewal Year	Average Change	Notes
2025 Renewals	≈ +10%	Average increase for all mortgage types
2026 Renewals	≈ +6%	Slightly smaller average increase

🔹 About 60% of borrowers are expected to see higher payments, while others — especially some variable-rate borrowers — may see little change or even slight reductions.

🔹 These are average projections, not specific lender rates.

🧮 2️⃣ Fixed vs Variable: A Balanced View

Mortgage Type	Estimated Payment Change (vs Dec 2024)	Source: Bank of Canada, 2025-21
Five-Year Fixed	+15 – 20% (range)	Renewing borrowers who locked in very low rates in 2020-2021 may see higher adjustments.
Variable-Rate, Variable-Payment	–5 to –7%	May benefit from recent rate easing.
Variable-Rate, Fixed-Payment	Wide range (–7 to +40%)	Varies by lender and timing of prior rate adjustments.

These are modelled averages, not predictions for individual borrowers.

🧭 3️⃣ What This Means for Borrowers

• Many homeowners who secured very low rates during 2020–2021 may experience moderate increases at renewal.

• Those on variable-rate terms could benefit slightly if rates continue to ease.

• Early planning — 6–12 months before renewal — can help assess options and manage any potential increase.

  
  

💡 4️⃣ Practical Steps to Prepare

• Review your renewal date now.

• Request a pre-renewal analysis with your mortgage professional.

• Let your mortgage consultant help you compare offers from different lenders when renewal approaches.

• Explore amortization adjustments or prepayment options for flexibility.

  
  

🧾 5️⃣ Summary

Based on Bank of Canada projections, average mortgage payments at renewal could increase by roughly 6%–10% through 2025–2026.The actual impact will vary by borrower, lender, and rate type. Reviewing your mortgage well in advance remains the best way to plan ahead.