Prediction 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its main interest rate by a quarter of a point on 24 July 2024. The overnight rate target now stands at 4.5%, down from 5.0% two months ago. In addition, BoC governor Tiff Macklem signaled that further rate cuts are likely. Economists expect one or two more cut this year.
Prediction 2025
TD Bank and CIBC Prediction
Both predicting that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by another 175 bps by the end of 2025. In other words, overnight target rate back down to 2.75% by the end of next year.
RBC Prediction
RBC projects a 3% overnight target rate by Q4 2025.
Scotia Bank Prediction
Scotiabank expects the central bank would reduce its overnight rate to 3.25%Â by the end of 2025.
BMO Prediction
BMO predicts that the Bank of Canada would lower rates by just one percentage point
(100 bps) more by the end of 2025, that is, overnight rate of 3.50%.
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